Ecuador's 1972 Oil Boom structural economic impact
Paper by:
Pablo Astudillo, University of Oxford
Daniel Baquero, CORDES
A vast amounts of academic literature have looked at the "Resource Curse" hypothesis and its Dutch Disease, which argues that natural resource dependency is correlated with low economic growth, weak institutions, lack of human capital among other issues [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10; 11]. However, recent research has shown that the resource curse hypothesis is far from conclusive: the 'Curse' is a much more complex phenomena and previous attempts to generalize the relationship between resource dependency with the aforementioned factors have been largely unfruitful (12, 13, 14). Most importantly, countries experience the "Curse" in different orders of magnitude whereas others do not experience it at all (14). In this context, many have argued that studying the correlation between economic performance and resource dependency must be dealt on an individual basis, since its manifestation depends on factors that are unique to specific regions or countries (5, 14, 15).
In this project, we developed a network-based methodology that allows us to study the inter-industrial dynamics of resource-rich developing economies, specially those that have insufficient historical data; and explored the impact that a resource boom had on those dynamics. Specifically, the proposed methodology allowed us to analyze intermediate consumption data of a given economy throughout network centrality measurements, which revealed the relative importance of each industry within a country's productive structure. Further, to evaluate the changes of the industrial importance caused by an external event [in our case, a resource boom], we used a synthetic control method developed by 16, 17. To test this proposed methodology empirically, we analyzed the Ecuadorian intermediate consumption data for 30 years, from 1965 to 1995. Moreover, to evaluate the effects of an external event on industrial centralities, we used the oil boom that took place in the country between 1972 and 1973 [results forthcoming].
Input / Output DATA (1965 - 1995)
NÚMERO CN AÑO PUBLICACIÓN-AÑOS ENLACE .CSV IMAGEN
0 - Estructura CN CN_0.xlxs
2 1982 1965-1971 1965.csv
- 1966.csv
- 1967.csv
- 1968.csv
- 1969.csv
- 1970.csv
- 1971.csv
1 1981 1972-1978 1972.csv
- 1973.csv
- 1974.csv
- 1975.csv
- 1976.csv
3 1982 1972-1980
4 1983 1974
5 1983 1973-1981
6 1984 1974-1983 (p) 1977.csv
- 1978.csv
- 1979.csv
- 1980.csv
- 1981.csv
7 1985 1980-1984 (p) 1982.csv
- 1983(sd).csv
8 1986 1981-1985
9 1987 1982-1986
10 1987 -
11 1988 1983-1987
12 1989 1984-1988 1984.csv
- 1985.csv
- 1986.csv
13 1990 1986-1989
14 1991 1987-1990 1987.csv
- 1988.csv
15 1992 1989-199 1 1989.csv
16 1993 1989-1992 1990.csv
17 1994 1990-1993 1991.csv
18 1996 1992-1995 1992.csv
- 1993(p).csv
- 1994(p).csv
- 1995(p).csv